A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
